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IN BRIEF
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Economic rivalry between Thailand and Vietnam is intensifying like never before, embodying a regional shift with concrete implications. By 2025, the flow of Chinese visitors had shifted in favor of Vietnam, which attracted approximately 5.3 million tourists from China compared to nearly 4.5 million for Thailand — a tangible indicator of a rebalancing underway.
This reversal adds to a contrasting picture: a competitiveness ranking of theIMD Thailand is placed ahead of Vietnam, but this gap masks opposing dynamics — Bangkok remains dependent on massive tourism that weighs heavily on the GDP and employment, while Hanoi is making rapid progress in seeking to avoid the overdevelopment and the overtourism.
Summary — The confrontation between the Thailand and the Vietnam The rivalry is taking an unprecedented turn: on several fronts—tourism, competitiveness, investment, and geopolitical issues—Vietnam is nibbling away at key market shares and improving its rankings internationally, while Thailand struggles to preserve vital sectors and manage structural weaknesses. This article describes recent developments, compares economic models, and highlights the regional tensions that underlie this rivalry.
A visible shift: Chinese tourists
The most tangible sign of regional rebalancing comes from tourist flows originating from the ChinaIn 2025, the Vietnam hosted approximately 5.3 million Chinese tourists, versus 4.5 million for the ThailandAccording to Vietnamese statistics cited by the international business press, this is the first time Vietnam has overtaken its rival in this key market.
There Thailand has, for its part, recorded an overall decrease in its international arrivals of the order of 7.23% in 2025, at 32.97 million of visitors. The most significant decline was among Chinese nationals (-33.55%), a phenomenon amplified by cases of fraudulent call centers operating from neighboring countries, which eroded confidence and reduced travel. In-depth analyses raise concerns about the risks of a dangerous economic entanglement between the two countries and the collateral effects on regional tourism (https://thaivisa.fr/thailande-vietnam-une-etreinte-economique-dangereuse/).
Short-term consequences
This reversal is not insignificant: it transforms the tourism value chains, investment priorities, and marketing strategies of the two regional capitals, Bangkok and Hanoi. Vietnam, still in the capacity expansion phase, is focusing on rapid infrastructure growth and diversification of visitor markets, while Thailand seeks to stabilize flows that nevertheless remain the largest in ASEAN by volume.
Divergent economic models
The two countries do not operate on the same economic framework. Thailand remains very dependent on tourism : it represents nearly 12% of GDP and employs more than 4.19 million of people. This dependence partly explains political decisions that aim more to manage volumes than to maximize them at all costs.
The importance of tourism in Thailand
To limit the excesses of overtourismIn May 2026, the government decided to reduce the visa exemption period from 60 to 30 days, a practical measure given that the average actual length of stay remained close to nine days. These choices reflect a desire to preserve socio-economic and environmental balances as Thailand aims to return to high levels of economic activity before 2026 (https://lecourrier.vn/le-vietnam-et-la-thaïlande-dynamisent-leurs-liens-economiques/1283177.html).
Vietnam’s strategy: controlled growth?
THE Vietnam The Thai trajectory is viewed as a warning against the effects of uncontrolled development. Vietnamese authorities are seeking to avoid the mistakes of Bali and certain Thai destinations by promoting more orderly growth. However, this growth is accompanied by a race to invest in equipment and modernize infrastructure to meet rapidly increasing foreign demand (https://toutelathailande.fr/vietnam-nouveau-tigre-economique-qui-menace-thailande/).
Rankings and competitiveness: one rank, two trajectories
International rankings present a more nuanced picture. In IMD’s June 2026 Global Competitiveness Ranking, the Thailand shown at 26th place in 70 economies, while the Vietnam, for its first entry, places itself at the 27th position. At first glance, a difference in rank may seem anecdotal; however, it masks opposing dynamics.
Thailand emerges with well-identified structural weaknesses: a poor ranking for the rule of law and the perception of corruption, which limit its long-term resilience. Conversely, Vietnam, without comparable historical capital in terms of institutional competitiveness, enters with a notable performance in business efficiency, consolidating productive strengths that allow it to catch up with its neighbor (https://thaivisa.fr/meme-une-croissance-moins-faible-que-prevu-nempechera-pas-le-vietnam-de-depasser-la-thailande/).
Interpreting the figures
The close rankings should not obscure their different trajectories: Thailand is consolidating what it has built, while Vietnam is starting from a historically cleaner slate, with significant room for improvement in industrial efficiency and attractiveness for certain types of investment. The rivalry thus becomes less a simple race for ranking and more a confrontation of models and priorities.
Capacity and infrastructure: who can scale up?
In terms of capacity, Thailand retains a volume advantage: it remains the leading tourist destination in ASEAN in terms of visitor numbers and aims for a rapid return to ambitious targets, around 36.7 million of visitors in 2026. Bangkok also maintains an image of a city capable of mobilizing quickly for major projects and events (https://asiesudest.com/bangkok-sarme-pour-accueillir-les-jeux-olympiques-de-la-finance-mondiale/).
Vietnam, for its part, does not yet have the capacity to match Thailand in terms of volume, but it is building quickly: hotel investments, modernized airports, roads and industrial zones are multiplying. These efforts allow it to capture very lucrative market segments and diversify its tourism and industrial revenues (https://lecourrier.vn/les-relations-thailande-vietnam-gagnent-en-dynamisme-et-en-portee-strategique/1348219.html).
Infrastructure and pace of investment
The central question remains the balance between speed of upgrading and control of externalities: Vietnam wants to avoid the trap of unsustainable development, while Thailand must manage the transition from a model based on the overabundance of flows to a logic of quality and resilience.
Geopolitical risks and resources: an indirect battleground
Beyond economic competition, the region is plagued by geopolitical tensions and resource rivalries. The growing friction between Vietnam and Cambodia over sand resources and maritime zones is an example of these challenges that can interfere with infrastructure and transport projects (https://asiesudest.com/les-tensions-croissantes-entre-le-vietnam-et-le-cambodge-un-potentiel-conflit-sur-les-ressources-sableuses/ ; https://asiesudest.com/le-cambodge-renaissant-un-royaume-faconne-par-les-cicatrices-du-regime-des-khmers-rouges/).
The rise of Cambodia itself, as well as regional and global cycles of tension, complicate the equation: analyses and feedback from the field highlight interactions between economic rivalries and security threats, leading to debates on the new dynamics of armament on a global scale (https://asiesudest.com/analyse-du-retour-du-cambodge-et-des-tensions-croissantes-entre-linde-et-le-pakistan-vers-un-cycle-guerrier/ ; https://asiesudest.com/le-risque-au-plus-haut-lombre-inquietante-dune-nouvelle-course-mondiale-a-larme-nucleaire/).
Cooperation or confrontation?
Despite these risks, bilateral initiatives seek to channel competition towards economic cooperation. Trade links and joint projects are highlighted in several analyses, which nevertheless emphasize the need for an institutional framework to prevent strategic disagreements (https://lecourrier.vn/le-vietnam-et-la-thaïlande-dynamisent-leurs-liens-economiques/1283177.html).
Impacts on the region and prospects
The increased rivalry between the Thailand and the Vietnam It is reshaping the balance of power in Southeast Asia. It influences investor choices, the mapping of tourist flows, and even political alliances. Public debate and the media analyze this dynamic sometimes as a threat to regional stability, sometimes as an opportunity to enhance the competitiveness and quality of offerings (https://thaivisa.fr/thailande-vietnam-une-etreinte-economique-dangereuse/ ; https://asiesudest.com/bangkok-sarme-pour-accueillir-les-jeux-olympiques-de-la-finance-mondiale/).
The national trajectories remain distinct: one seeks to curb excesses and protect major employment sectors, the other to accelerate its move upmarket and capture new markets. Between managing volumes and optimizing value, the rivalry is intensifying like never before, with consequences that now extend far beyond a simple bilateral contest.
FAQ — Economic and tourism rivalry between Thailand and Vietnam
Q. What is the most significant aspect of this rivalry in 2025?
A. The clearest sign is the shift in the flow of Chinese visitors: by 2025, the Vietnam attracted approximately 5.3 million tourists from China, while the Thailand received approximately 4.5 million, a first reversal in this key market.
Q. Does the decline in tourism in Thailand affect all visitors?
A. Yes: international arrivals in Thailand have declined by approximately 7.2% in 2025, to reach nearly 33 million of visitors. The drop was particularly marked among Chinese tourists, who decreased by about a third.
Q. What are the causes of the decline in Chinese tourists to Thailand?
A. Several factors contributed, including a decline in Chinese demand and concerns related to networks of fraudulent call centers operating in Burma and Cambodia, which weighed on visitors’ confidence.
Q. Is Vietnam trying to replicate the Thai tourism model?
A. Vietnam looks to Thailand both as a model and as a warning: it wants to benefit from growth without repeating the mistakes of overdevelopment and of overtourism observed elsewhere in Southeast Asia.
Q. Why can’t Thailand easily reduce its tourist flows?
A. Because the tourism represents a significant part of its economy — around 12% of GDP — and that it employs several million people (approximately 4.19 million), any limitation of volumes would massively affect employment and income.
Q. What concrete measures has Thailand taken recently?
A. In May 2026, the government reduced the duration of thevisa exemption from 60 to 30 days, reflecting an effort to moderate stays, while the actual average length of stay remained low, around nine days.
Q. How do these countries rank in competitiveness rankings?
A. In the global competitiveness ranking of theIMD Published in June 2026, Thailand is just ahead of Vietnam (26th and 27th out of 70 respectively), but this proximity hides different trajectories: Thailand is consolidating an achievement while Vietnam is making a remarkable entry.
Q. What structural weaknesses are affecting Thailand?
A. Indicators point to ongoing challenges: Thailand has lower scores on therule of law and the fight against corruptionpoints that a local institution placed far from the top of the rankings.
Q. Is Vietnam already capable of competing on a regional scale?
A. Not yet on the same scale: the Thailand remains the top destination ofASEAN in volume and aims for a target of nearly 36.7 million of visitors in 2026. Vietnam does not yet have the capacity to match this level, but it grows quickly.
Q. What role does China play in this regional rebalancing?
A. China is the visible trigger for the rebalancing: the shift of Chinese tourists to Vietnam in 2025 illustrates how Chinese choices and flows can rapidly reshape the tourism and economic landscape in Southeast Asia.