| IN BRIEF
|
There Thailand, second largest economySoutheast Asia, sees his gross domestic product (GDP) planned to 2.5% for the year 2024, an estimate which turns out to be lower than experts’ expectations. This performance reflects a slight improvement compared to the previous year, when growth reached 2.0%, but remains behind its regional neighbors, as Vietnam and theIndonesia, which display rates well above 5%. Growth supported by public investment and exports appears insufficient to address the economic challenges facing the kingdom.
In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Thailand is expected to increase by only 2.5%, an estimate which turns out to be lower than experts’ expectations. This growth, although it marks a slight improvement compared to 2.0% recorded in 2023, suggests significant challenges for the Thai economy, particularly in the face of the competitiveness of its neighbors in theASEAN.
Analysis of economic growth
According to the National Statistics Agency of Thailand (NESDC), the increase in GDP in 2024 is the result of a modest improvement in the economic climate, supported by a return ofpublic investment and an increase in exports. However, this performance is not enough to bridge the gap that separates Thailand from its regional partners like the Vietnam, there Malaysia, L’Indonesia and the Philippines, all of which show growth rates higher than 5%.
Experts’ predictions
Economists’ initial forecasts were more optimistic. Experts interviewed by Bloomberg anticipated growth of 2.7%, while bank analysts MUFG estimated a potential of 2.9%. However, the growth of 3.2% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024 failed to reach the 3.8% projected by Bloomberg. This highlights a growing gap between expectations and Thai economic reality.
Factors influencing growth in 2025
For the year 2025, the NESDC forecasts growth of between 2.3% And 3.3%. Hopes rest largely on a rebound in tourism, crucial for the Thai economy. However, uncertainties remain, particularly those linked to the trade policies of UNITED STATES, a key trading partner, which could directly impact Thai exports.
The impacts of international trade policies
Recent trade tensions, compounded by the current US administration and threats of new tariffs, highlight Thailand’s vulnerability. As indicated Capital Economics, the country finds itself particularly exposed to the consequences of American customs policies, and such a situation could compromise its exports, which are vital for its economic growth.
Conclusion of previous economic performance
Looking back, Thai GDP growth has shown signs of improvement in 2024, but it remains insufficient to reassure observers and investors. The recent increase in 3.2%% in the fourth quarter shows progress, but other indicators such as private consumption and fixed investments show signs of weakness. The Thai economy must therefore navigate carefully in an uncertain global economic context to hope to come close to the performance of its Asian neighbors.
For more information, see the available sources: Full article, Analysis of economic indicators, and many other articles on Southeast Asia.
- GDP 2024: 2.5% growth
- 2023 comparison: 2.0% in 2023
- Expert predictions: Expectation of 2.7% to 2.9%
- Fourth quarter 2024: Growth of 3.2%
- Positive factors: Restart of public investments and exports
- Regional comparison: Lower than neighboring countries (Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines)
- Forecast 2025: Between 2.3% and 3.3%
- Risks: Uncertainties related to United States trade policies
Thailand GDP Growth FAQs for 2024
What is Thailand’s GDP growth forecast for 2024? Thailand’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 is 2.5%, which is lower than experts’ expectations.
How does this forecast compare to that of 2023? This forecast of 2.5% for 2024 shows a slight improvement compared to the growth of 2.0% registered in 2023.
What factors contributed to this growth? Growth was driven by a revival public investment and exports increased.
How long is the current economic situation expected to last? The national statistics agency forecasts that growth could be between 2.3% And 3.3% in 2025.
What could impact Thai economic growth? The uncertainties linked to UNITED STATES and their customs policy are risk factors for Thai exports.
How did Thailand’s GDP perform in the fourth quarter of 2024? In the fourth quarter of 2024, Thai GDP increased by 3.2% compared to the previous year, but this remains below forecasts.
How do experts assess this growth? Experts interviewed by Bloomberg had anticipated growth of 2.7% has 2.9%, which indicates disappointment with reality.