IN BRIEF
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The energy shock linked to the conflict in the Middle East in 2026 has already been released three key lessons, according to the analyses of Goldman SachsThese lessons shed light on how supply shocks rapidly reconfigure markets and policy priorities, between immediate impacts and structural trajectories.
Firstly, the low-income economies are the most vulnerable: the rush of wealthy buyers towards the LNG has driven up global prices, effectively excluding some importers. Secondly, the search for security of supply strengthens the growth of solar, local energy whose costs have been driven down by a large installed capacity, already visible before 2022. Thirdly, where renewables cannot be deployed quickly, the coal reappears as an affordable and available solution, particularly in several South and Southeast Asian countries. The recent ceasefire could facilitate the normalization of flows via the Strait of Hormuz, but the conflict has already caused Significant declines in oil and LNG imports in March 2026 from several major importers.
This text summarizes the lessons learned from the recent energy shock and puts their resonance into perspective with the crisis triggered by the war in the Middle East in 2026. Based on financial analyses and market observations, three major trends emerge: the vulnerability of low-income economies, the acceleration towards more sustainable sources of supply local like the solar, and the increased use of coal in some countries due to a lack of rapid renewable energy deployments. These dynamics combine with disruptions in trade flows — particularly through the Strait of Hormuz — which have already weighed on the volumes imported fromoil and of LNG at the beginning of 2026.
Low-income economies are the most exposed.
The first lesson highlights that the least wealthy countries suffer the most from supply shocks. During the 2022 energy crisis, the rapid search for LNG by importers able to pay high prices led to a global surge in tariffs, crowding out less affluent buyers. This dynamic was repeated in 2026 when tensions in the Middle East disrupted flows: powerful importers captured the available supply, to the detriment of states with limited financial resources.
Countries like Bangladesh and the Pakistan have seen their share of LNG decline sharply in the national energy structure, while higher-income economies, such as theEuropean Union, THE Japan and the South Koreahave managed to maintain or increase their import volumes by accepting record prices. To understand the implications of such a supply shift and its potential recurrence, several analyses and warning reports detail the risks of a new global crisis (see, for example, the warning published on le-gaz.fr or the forward-looking reflections of economists on Les Echos).
Solar energy: a structural beneficiary of the search for security
The second lesson highlights the role of the solar as the preferred solution to strengthen the energy security through the localization of supplies. Repeated concerns about the reliability of international flows are prompting governments to favor locally produced energy sources, reducing dependence on volatile global markets.
Even before 2022, China had begun a transition that favored renewables over coal rather than massive substitutions with natural gas, taking advantage of excess solar panel manufacturing capacity that kept costs down. Analysts, including Hongcen Wei at Goldman Sachs, believe that the recent conflict in the Middle East will reinforce this shift toward decentralized energy and support a structural increase in electricity demand and solar deployment.
To grasp the scale of capacity shifts and the graphs illustrating these shocks, summary resources present market developments and their global repercussions, useful for comparing episodes (see, for example, a visual summary on RBC).
Coal: an affordable refuge in the absence of quick renewables
The third lesson goes in the opposite direction for the coalWhile rich economies continued their gradual disengagement from coal after 2022, several countries in South and Southeast Asia chose a different path, sometimes replacing gas with cheaper and more readily available coal.
The choice of coal is mainly explained by the priority given to the security of supply Without sufficient and rapid deployment of renewables, coal remains an economical option, available through domestic production or regional trade. Countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Vietnam have thus increased their use of coal as a temporary solution to gas supply disruptions.
The institutional publications and technical reports that accompany these developments describe the trade-offs between cost, availability, and climate ambition, and inform the public policies needed to avoid a massive return to carbon (see the work and publications of the General Commission for Sustainable Development on new-letter.cgdd).
Trade flows, the Strait of Hormuz and its immediate impact on imports
Beyond these structural lessons, the conflict had immediate effects on trading volumes. The relative cessation of hostilities at the beginning of the week may have contributed to a certain normalization of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, but the disruptions have already left their mark: in March 2026, most major importers recorded marked year-on-year declines in oil and LNG imports.
Key countries such as the Pakistan, there China and theIndia have experienced significant decreases in gas deliveries, illustrating the sensitivity of supplies to geopolitical uncertainties. Press analyses and specialized journals document these movements and their economic and social consequences, as evidenced by the dedicated reports published by the business press and the energy sections of the major national newspapers (Le Monde — energy).
For those wishing to delve deeper into the mapping of risks and potential shocks, summaries and surveys offer scenarios and visualizations useful for anticipating new waves of instability in energy markets (RBC, Les Echos, Le-Gas).
FAQ — Three key lessons from the recent energy shock
Q. What are the three main lessons learned from the 2022 energy shock and its link to the 2026 Middle East crisis?
A. The first lesson is that the low-income economies are the most vulnerable to supply shocks because they are often excluded by rising global prices LNGThe second is that the concerns of security of supply favor localized energy sources, primarily thesolar energyThe third point is a partial return to coal in several South and Southeast Asian countries that have not deployed renewables quickly enough.
Q. Why were low-income countries more affected by the 2022 crisis?
A. When Europe massively sought LNG After the reduction in Russian deliveries, global prices skyrocketed, making supplies too expensive for less affluent buyers. As a result, countries like the Bangladesh and the Pakistan have seen the share of LNG in their energy mix fall sharply.
Q. Which countries have managed to maintain or increase their LNG imports despite rising prices?
A. Richer economies like theEuropean Union, THE Japan and the South Korea were able to pay record prices to secure LNG volumes, which allowed them to maintain or increase their imports.
Q. How has the crisis accelerated the adoption of solar energy?
A. Concerns about supply availability have led governments to favor local sources.solar energy has benefited from this logic: it reduces dependence on imports, and the overcapacity in panel manufacturing has kept costs low, facilitating deployment.
Q. What role has China played in the transition to solar power?
A. There China had already begun a shift towards renewables before 2022, gradually reducing its dependence on coal and prioritizing solar rather than massive use of gas, which has contributed to lower costs of solar equipment worldwide.
Q. Why have some countries returned to coal after 2022?
A. Due to the lack of rapid deployment of renewable energies and in search ofaccessibility andaffordability, several countries in South and Southeast Asia, including the Vietnam, THE Bangladesh and the Pakistanhave favored the coal as an energy security solution, because it is often available locally or through regional trade at a lower cost.
Q. Can the recent ceasefire agreement restore energy flows?
A. The ceasefire can help normalize the flow of people across the Strait of Hormuz, the main maritime corridor for oil. However, the shock had already led to significant annual declines in oil imports and LNG in March 2026 for many major importers.
Q. Which countries experienced the most significant declines in gas deliveries in 2026?
A. In March 2026, countries like the Pakistan, there China and theIndia recorded particularly sharp declines in gas deliveries, reflecting the immediate impact of the disruptions on energy imports.
Q. What are the implications for the energy policy of vulnerable countries?
A. Policymakers must balance energy security and the low-carbon transition: accelerate the deployment of local renewables (particularly solar), strengthen storage capacity, and diversify supplies to reduce the likelihood of a shift towards the coal by default.
Q. What does the expression “structural growth of solar energy” mentioned by analysts mean?
A. It refers to a sustained upward trend in the share of solar in global electricity production, driven by the search for security of supply, the decrease in panel costs and the growing demand for decarbonized electricity.